In July and August, GWCT staff and their pointing dogs revisited study sites across the North of England and Scotland to count red grouse. After the pair counts in the spring, which aim to determine the number of breeding pairs, these brood counts in July aim to estimate the breeding success. The current monitoring regime extends over 21 sites in England and 24 sites in Scotland. As many of the study sites have been monitored since the 1980s, this GWCT dataset is one of a kind and offers crucial insights into red grouse population dynamics.
From this year’s spring counts, we know that pre-breeding densities were much lower than last year (40% lower in England and 34% lower in Scotland). The latest brood counts recorded further losses of adults (36% in England and 29% in Scotland). However, the remaining adult birds did produce more young when compared to last year, with an average young-to-old ratio of 1.4 in England (0.9 in 2024) and 1.3 in Scotland (0.6 in 2024). This combination of adult losses and improved breeding success meant that the average post-breeding density was lower in England than last year and similar in Scotland (Fig 1).
The regional breakdown (Table 1) shows improved breeding success compared to last year across all regions in Scotland, but there are differences within England. The average breeding success was lower in Southern Dales compared to last year, but higher in the Northern Dales. This is likely to be influenced by the severe heather beetle damage that was evident at all count sites in the Southern Dales and North York Moors, but which effected fewer count sites in the Northern Dales.
| Region | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| England | ||
| Southern Dales | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| North York Moors | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Northern Dales | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Scotland | ||
| Borders, Perthshire, Angus | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Dee & Donside | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Highland | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Moray & Nairn | 0.4 | 1.5 |
For many estates in England and Scotland, 2025 will act as a building year, where grouse populations are allowed to recover from the catastrophic crash of 2024. The exact reasons for the recent dramatic fluctuations in grouse numbers continue to be poorly understood. The GWCT is currently undertaking two major research projects designed to shed light on these drivers: the Maternal Grouse Project involves comprehensive monitoring of grouse hens through the breeding season, and the Long-Term Grouse Count Analysis involves a detailed statistical analysis of our long-term datasets, such as decades of pair count and brood count data.